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Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion

The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.

Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."

Appeal for Broader Debate

Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."