A mere 60 days prior when Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager berated him over not reading a through-ball. During that period, with the team endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were a sign or the source of the team's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, however, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. After the in-form star drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate the lead for Villa, Emery discarded his jacket, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The team marched on to a 10th successive win and after failing to win their initial half-dozen games, find themselves only three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Hopefuls?
It remains an exceptionally difficult proposition to resolve. The historical record, the perceived status of Villa, suggests not. Moreover, they've rarely been wholly dominant in many games, even as the wins have stacked up.
Per the data, on just two occasions has the side had an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a side that have put together ten consecutive victories, they look curiously susceptible – yet currently the margins are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach seems to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent and then rely on their talisman to save the day with a couple of precise efforts. This occurred away to Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and it happened versus United.
His opener stemmed from a superb shot, curled right inside the post from a wide position. The follow-up goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opponents managed more efforts and more shots on target. They have won each of their last eight by just one goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those matches.
A statistical correction may well be the most significant challenge the club will encounter in the near future. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot maintain drilling the football past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Could it be another reality whereby, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures may yet find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent might become the player he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to return from injury, bolstering a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
This could contain the seeds of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable the team would occupy third at Christmas. And certainly earlier this season, few could imagine the midfielder now would be spearheading a title charge while establishing himself as a vital England player.
This remarkable period must be cherished for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As the hero stood in front of the home supporters when the game ended leading the celebrations, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These runs of form do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
